Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
