Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
